IDA: Ida is plying the waters of the northwestern Caribbean on this November Saturday. Ida has been getting better organized all morning and Air Force recon just found that it is just below hurricane intensity. It will likely become a hurricane later today or tonight. It will pass between the Yucatan and Cuba on Sunday and into the southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday night. As it moves northward, Ida will encounter increasing wind shear and dry air from a big trough over the western Gulf. This will change the storm from a tropical system (with a warm core) to a powerful extratropical storm (cold core). The storm will be near the mouth of the Mississippi River by Monday night and near Mobile Bay late Monday night. Ida will not be a big problem for coastal sections, but it will bring tropical storm force winds of 45-50 mph to the coast, heavy surf and coastal erosion. It will be interesting to watch the transition and affects along the coast. Stay tuned.

REST OF YOUR WEEKEND: Beautiful weather for the Alabama, Auburn and UAB games today. Lots of sunshine with temperatures in the 67 to 70 degree range during the games. In fact, we are on the verge of a Perfect Weather Warning for today. Tomorrow looks even a tad better, so we will go ahead and pull the trigger on the PWW for Sunday, with temperatures a few degrees warmer and still plenty of sunshine. We start off in the lower to middle 40s tomorrow and peak in the middle 70s on the thermometer. Beautiful.

IDA’S AFFECTS: There is a second disturbance over the Bay of Campeche right now. Moisture from it will be shunted northward and start producing very heavy rain over Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night into Monday. That heavy rain will push into Alabama during the day Monday. Winds will be on the increase as well, averaging 15-30 and occasionally gusting higher Monday and Monday night. Rain will be likely Monday night across much of the state, with heavy rain possible. Two to three inches of rain is likely across the middle of the state, with some 4+ inch amounts over Southwest sections of the state. High pressure will build in Wednesday, clearing our skies.

REST OF THE WEEK: Thursday and Friday look fine, but we will see increasing clouds and a few showers as we head into the weekend. Not seeing a washout for Saturday and Sunday by any stretch, but showers will be around.

FORECAST FLASHBACK: On the afternoon of the 28th, I got to do the afternoon forecast package for J.B. Here is a snippet from that forecast: Watch for a hurricane to come out of the Caribbean, threatening South Florida around the 11th. It will be interesting to watch. The GFS model was picking up on something way back then. Not bad!

WEATHERBRAINS: Our fine run of guests continues this week with famed severe weather and wind damage expert Tim Marshall on Monday night. Listen at www.WeatherBrains.com or subscribe at iTunes. It’s free!

ON THE DATE IN 1837: Hawaii seemingly should have lots of hurricanes. It lies in the middle of warm ocean waters. It is the same latitude as hurricane-prone areas as the Caribbean Sea and the Bay of Bengal. But the islands are usually protected in summer by sprawling high pressure systems that deflect tropical storms away from Hawaii. On this date, one of the most intense hurricanes ever to strike Hawaii brought winds of 115 mph to Hilo. 730 people were missing or killed. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter.com @ wxhistorian.