Portions of Alabama upgraded to High Risk - ABC 33/40 - Birmingham News, Weather, Sports

Portions of Alabama upgraded to High Risk

Posted: Updated:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MS...AL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LA...MS...AL...TN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF
SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE
LOWER/MID MS VALLEY EWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FROM PARTS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. NUMEROUS
TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
INTENSE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. ...PRIMARY CHANGES
TO THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...
/1/ AREAS FROM CNTRL MS TO NWRN AL HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK.
SEMI-DISCRETE/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE EVOLVING
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM N-CNTRL MS TO W-CNTRL MS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
SHOULD FORM FARTHER S WITH DIURNAL HEATING...WITH
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS PARTS
OF MS INTO WRN AL. WITH WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER
CONDITIONS SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG
AMIDST 200-400 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH...AND GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF SEPARATED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED IN GREATER COVERAGE OF TORNADOES
WARRANTING THE HIGH RISK UPGRADE. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
ARE EXPECTED.
/2/ MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE TO THE MODERATE
RISK TO INCLUDE MORE OF NERN LA...SRN MS...AND WRN/CNTRL
AL TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO
POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT/DRYLINE OVER THE SABINE VALLEY...WITH THE
GREATER SVR RISK SPREADING EWD ACROSS AL TONIGHT.
/3/ THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS EXTENDED NEWD INTO
PORTIONS OF ERN KY...WRN VA...AND VICINITY FOR SVR
WIND AND TORNADO RISK SHIFTING ENEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..COHEN.. 04/28/2014
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