Showers and storms could put a damper on Halloween night - ABC 33/40 - Birmingham News, Weather, Sports

Showers and storms could put a damper on Halloween night

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ABC 33/40 Weather team's forecasted arrival of storms for Halloween, Thursday, October 31, 2013. ABC 33/40 Weather team's forecasted arrival of storms for Halloween, Thursday, October 31, 2013.

Check out the Halloween weather forecast ahead of your night of trick-or-treating and spooktivities:

STORMY HALLOWEEN NIGHT:

Our weather stays dry Thursday morning, but showers and storms will move into the state from the northwest late in the day.

TIMING:

The high resolution NAM model brings showers into Northwest Alabama tomorrow afternoon, so places like Sulligent, Vernon, Hamilton, and Russellville could see some rain as early as 1-3 p.m. In terms of the main band of storms, they will move into Northwest Alabama in the 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. time frame. For places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden, storms should begin around 7 p.m. See the graphic below prepared by the NWS in Birmingham…

Click image to enlarge.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:

SPC maintains the standard "slight risk" of severe weather for parts of northwest Alabama tomorrow night. The best combination of shear and instability will be near places like Memphis and Jackson, Tennessee, up into western Kentucky. Here in Alabama, we have the high shear, low instability which is not unusual for our fall severe weather season. Instability values are very marginal, with surface based CAPE values well under 500 j/kg. But, low level (0-1 km) helicity values are quite high over the northwest part of the state.

Click image to enlarge.

In Alabama the best chance of any severe weather will be west of a line from Reform to Smith Lake to Huntsville, and the main threat will come from strong gusty winds associated with thunderstorms. However, an isolated tornado tomorrow evening in this part of the state can't be ruled out with the high shear values.

Storms should slowly weaken as they move toward Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden, and the severe weather threat here is very marginal.

StormAlert Radar

(Updates every 5 minutes)

Click image to enlarge.

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