BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012
...ISAAC GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT NEARS SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 89.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA
* MORGAN CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED
BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2
WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE ISAAC SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE ISAAC MAKES LANDFALL. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER
LANDFALL OCCURS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...MAINLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA. NOAA BUOY 42040...LOCATED
EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RECENTLY MEASURED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 63 MPH...100 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 83 MPH...
135 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
* MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...4 TO 8 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
* REMAINDER OF FLORIDA WEST COAST...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD
ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. AT ABOUT THE
30TH STORY...WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE.
RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES...OVER MUCH OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE RAINS
COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING.
TORNADOES...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
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