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Bonds down as stocks rise; investors await economic data
   posted 4:02 pm Mon May 12, 2008 - NEW YORK
Treasury prices slipped modestly Monday as the stock market rallied and fixed-income looked ahead to a number of key economic reports to be released in the coming days.The dollar's rise, which helped dampen oil prices, helped send the Dow Jones industrials up more than 130 points, as did encouraging news about the credit markets.
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HSBC Holdings PLC said its first-quarter profits rose although it wrote down billions of dollars due to the U.S. credit market problems, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon said he estimates the credit market crisis is 75 percent over, although his company believes the recession is just beginning.

With credit market concerns on the decline, investors were less inclined to buy safe-haven government securities.

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The benchmark 10-year Treasury note slipped 6/32 to 100 21/32 and its yield rose to 3.79 percent from 3.78 percent late Friday, according to BGCantor Market Data. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields.

The 30-year long bond fell 4/32 to 97 12/32 and yielded 4.54 percent, up from 4.53 percent late Friday.

The 2-year note fell 4/32 at 99 21/32 and its yield rose to 2.31 percent from 2.24 percent.

On Tuesday, the Commerce Department reports on April retail sales to get a better idea of consumers' ability to spend. The market's concern is that record-high energy and food prices have cut into consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

Many economists predict that late 2008 might show a rebound in the economy, but that hinges on how financially secure consumers feel. One factor will be what happens to crude oil, which fluctuated Monday after setting a new trading high of $126.40 a barrel.

Wall Street will also get a gauge on inflation when the Labor Department releases its consumer price index on Wednesday. Other reports on tap include the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index on Friday.

"The market is very quiet, with a modest flattening action ahead of this week's economic reports," said Jay Mueller, an economist at Strong Capital Management. "We're going to get CPI, retail sales, and that really should give us some direction."

Any disappointing data could prompt equity investors to shift money into the Treasury market, thereby extending last week's rally. Government debt had one of its biggest weeks since February amid surging oil prices and renewed concern about a recession.

Treasurys might also get a lift on Thursday, when the government is expected to retire $74 billion in maturing government debt and $17.5 billion in coupon interest. That would remove supply from the market and could drive up the prices of outstanding issues.



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